Will the ‘Fossil Fuel Phase-Out’ be Achieved by COP 28?

According to the Guinness World Records, “the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka is the world’s most densely populated city. With a population of 16.8 million residents spread over an area of 368 km², the city has an average of 45,700 persons per square kilometer”. World Bank mentioned in their report that “Air pollution caused about 78,145–88,229 deaths in Bangladesh in 2019. Dhaka is the most polluted division while Sylhet is the least polluted. From 2018 to 2021, Dhaka was ranked as the second most polluted city in the world. The western regions (Khulna and Rajshahi) are more polluted than the eastern ones (Sylhet and Chattogram).”

Rojina Parvin is a 35-year-old working woman in Dhaka city, every morning she goes out to the workplace and also takes her 10-year-old son to school. For the past year, she has been having breathing problems due to black smoke from the cars and also an enormous dust outside. she is now taking an inhaler regularly and her son feels the same, though they wear musk regularly after the coronavirus pandemic, but the real damage to health has already happened. The amount of pollution in the air of Dhaka has not decreased in any way but it has increased day by day.

This is the regular scenario of Dhaka city. The city dwellers undoubtedly recognize that the air in Dhaka is toxic and poses a significant threat to health. International studies highlight a consistent increase in air pollution levels in Dhaka city over recent years, consistently ranking the city among the most polluted globally. How much fossil fuel is responsible for that polluted air pollution, what will be the possible solution to this threat, and what will be the future of the ‘Fossil Fuel Phase-Out’ proposal at COP 28 in Dubai in upcoming November? It is very important for us to find answers to these questions.

Fossil Fuel Consumption in Dhaka

On July 9th, a seminar titled ‘Sustainable Energy Policy and Our Livelihood’ was organized by the Institute of Energy at Dhaka University’s Senate Building.

During the ‘Sustainable Energy Week-2023’ event, Dhaka Mayor Sheikh Fazle Noor Tapos emphasized, “80% of air pollution is caused by fossil fuels. The oil we use is crude oil. The fuel oil imported to Bangladesh is of poor quality. The danger posed by the diesel we use, despite daily exposure to high levels of air pollution, often goes unnoticed. Harmful substances like lead, magnesium, and sulfur are abundant. Consequently, even though Dhaka is a relatively small city, we face significant air pollution.”

The Extent of Air Toxicity Due to Fossil Fuels in Dhaka

Fossil fuels can harm human health in various ways, slowly driving individuals toward certain death. Coal, oil, and natural gas are prominent examples of fossil fuels that have a significant impact on global health and the environment. These impacts primarily result from the emission of greenhouse gases and other pollutants during the extraction, production, transportation, and consumption of these fuels. The human toll of climate change is a significant facet of these health impacts.

If there were no air pollution in Dhaka, its residents would have an additional life expectancy of seven years and seven months. In other words, air pollution has reduced Dhaka’s inhabitants’ life expectancy by 7 years and 7 months. Moreover, air pollution has caused the average life expectancy for the entire country to decrease by approximately five years and four months. In 2021, the Energy Policy Institute of the University of Chicago in the United States provided this alarming data. According to their ‘Air Quality Life Index,’ the air pollution levels in each of the country’s 64 districts exceed World Health Organization guidelines by at least three times. Polluted air contains solid and liquid airborne particles, collectively known as ‘particulate matter.’

Air quality is assessed based on the concentration of suspended particulate matter, specifically PM-10 and fine particulate matter, PM2.5, measured in micrograms per cubic meter (ppm).

The Air Quality Index (AQI) incorporates measurements of sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ground-level ozone, as well as PM 2.5 and PM 10, to gauge pollution levels. Notably, PM 2.5 refers to particles such as glass, brick fragments, smoke, or dust.

An AQI ranging from zero to 50 indicates good air quality. However, during the dry season, Dhaka often registers an AQI exceeding 250, categorized as unhealthy.

The primary source of pollution is fossil fuels, primarily originating from vehicle engines and power plants.

The World Health Organization has established a maximum average particulate matter level of 10 micrograms per cubic meter for PM 2.5 in the air. Nonetheless, Dhaka’s air contained 97.1 micrograms per cubic meter of these particles in 2018, nearly 10 times the recommended level. In 2017, this figure stood at 79.7 micrograms per cubic meter.

According to the World Air Quality Report 2020 released in March 2021, Bangladesh’s air contains 77.1 micrograms per cubic meter of particulate matter 2.5, surpassing the World Health Organization’s standards by sevenfold. The report designated Bangladesh as the most polluted country globally, with Dhaka ranking as the second most polluted city.

Severe Health Deterioration Caused by Fossil Fuels

The combustion of fossil fuels releases pollutants such as particulates, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and volatile organic compounds. These pollutants contribute to poor air quality, leading to respiratory problems like asthma, chronic bronchitis, and other lung diseases. Particularly in densely populated urban areas or regions near industrial sites and power plants, the health consequences can be severe.

Air pollution from fossil fuels has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, including heart attacks and strokes. Fine particles and other pollutants can enter the bloodstream, causing inflammation and damage to blood vessels and the cardiovascular system.

The fine PM 2.5 particles emitted due to fossil fuel usage are microscopic, enabling them to infiltrate deep into the lungs through inhalation. Subsequently, these particles travel through the bloodstream, affecting the heart and disseminating throughout the body. As a result, respiratory ailments such as sneezing, coughing, breathlessness, and a runny nose can develop, ranging from minor conditions like chronic bronchitis to life-threatening diseases such as heart attacks and cancer. Consequently, both the World Health Organization and the International Agency for Research on Cancer classify PM2.5 as a ‘Group 1 carcinogen,’ meaning it is a primary contributor to cancer development in humans.

In addition, these particles pose more significant risks to the elderly and children. According to the Global Air Situation-2017 report, approximately 120,000 deaths occur annually in Bangladesh due to air pollution. Globally, in 2015, air pollution contributed to 4.2 million deaths. As per the Life Index published on September 1, 2021, the most polluted cities are predominantly located in Khulna and Rajshahi divisions. The highest levels of PM 2.5 are recorded in Narayanganj, Jessore, Rajshahi, Khulna, Pabna, Dhaka, and Gazipur.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics indicates that the average life expectancy in the country is around 72 years and six months. Life Index research shows that in 1998, air pollution reduced life expectancy by approximately two years and eight months. By 2019, this reduction had escalated to five years and four months. Comparatively, China’s efforts to decrease air pollution and limit fossil fuel consumption have led to an increase in average life expectancy. In 2011, China implemented policies to reduce air pollution, subsequently raising life expectancy by 2.6 years.

A study from 2020 revealed that during the months of November to February, 49 percent of children seeking treatment at Dhaka Medical College Hospital presented respiratory issues. The National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine (NIPSOM) conducted this study, noting a significant rise in dust and pollution during this period. Furthermore, 35 percent of the children experienced respiratory problems even during the monsoon season.

The Psychological Toll of Climate Change

The psychological impact of climate change can be substantial. Heightened exposure to extreme weather events, loss of livelihoods, and displacement can result in stress, anxiety, depression, and other mental health conditions.

Varieties of Fossil Fuel Use

Domestically, air pollution arises from brickyards, factories, and vehicles emitting smoke, exhaust from older vehicles, waste from around four million stoves in slums, combustion of wood-coal and kerosene for cooking, emissions from thousands of trucks and long-haul vehicles entering Dhaka, as well as dust from road construction and excavation.

Particulate matter (PM) harmful to human health is increasing in the air at a rate of 15.3 percent annually. Fossil fuels significantly contribute to this air pollution, although the impact from brick kilns has slightly decreased. However, the improvement of the public transportation system remains inadequate. Without progress in this sector, there will be no reduction in private vehicle usage or fossil fuel consumption. Many of the vehicles circulating in Dhaka are in poor condition, with a high number being expired or emitting toxic gases as their components deteriorate. Developed nations are taking steps to control pollution, such as retiring old vehicles and employing high-quality engines. In contrast, our vehicles use low-quality engines and fuel with sulfur levels exceeding 2000 ppm, in stark contrast to the below-50 ppm level used in developed countries.

Approaches to Fossil Fuel Phase-Out and Renewable Energy Adoption Climate experts emphasize that the combustion of fossil fuels releases toxic gases into the atmosphere, deteriorating air quality. Therefore, to preserve clean air, reducing reliance on coal and fuel oil is essential. Increasing power generation from renewable sources like solar and wind energy is critical. Bangladesh possesses significant potential for renewable energy, but certain challenges must be overcome.

Shahriar Ahmed Chowdhury, Director of the Center for Energy Research at the United International University, asserts that Bangladesh could derive 40 percent of its total energy from renewable sources by 2041, necessitating expanded research in this field.

Professor Ahmad Kamruzzaman Majumder, founding chairman of the Center for Atmospheric Pollution, underscores the dire impact of air pollution, highlighting that clean air is a fundamental right denied to Dhaka’s inhabitants. Ceasing fossil fuel consumption while embracing renewable energy is the key to ensuring clean air and energy security.

Sharif Jamil, the coordinator of Waterkeepers Bangladesh, emphasizes that energy security depends on renewable energy due to the strategic nature of the fuel. However, he also underscores the importance of preserving the environment while ensuring energy security.

Relaxing Regulations and Favoring Fossil Fuels

A discussion on the ‘Role of Renewable Energy in Wind and Energy Development’ took place in Dhaka few months ago. Experts speaking at the event expressed concerns about the lenient treatment given to fossil fuels (coal, fuel oil, gas) responsible for air pollution in Bangladesh. Certain legal conditions are being relaxed, resulting in decreased scrutiny of power plant construction’s environmental impact. As electricity demand continues to rise, reliance on fossil fuels is set to increase, consequently aggravating air pollution.

Prominent environmental lawyer Syeda Rizwana Hasan from the Bangladesh Environmental Lawyers Association (BELA) asserts that the targets for renewable energy should be elevated. Air pollution is diminishing life expectancy, and the importance of preserving human life outweighs the need for an uninterrupted electricity supply. Hasan calls for the closure of coal-based power plants and a comprehensive analysis of potential losses if two hours of daily load shedding are introduced instead of coal power.

Moreover, attendees emphasized the need to prioritize renewable energy adoption as an alternative to fossil fuels. Renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, and hydropower have a crucial advantage—generating electricity without emitting harmful greenhouse gases and air pollutants into the environment.

Incorporating Fossil Fuel Phase-Out into COP 28 Agenda

On June 5th, the United Nations climate chief emphasized the necessity of phasing out fossil fuels to curb global warming. Nonetheless, this proposition may not be included in the “make-or-break” climate negotiations scheduled for COP 28.

According to UN Climate Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, discussions consistently prioritize or heavily feature the phase-out of heat-trapping fossil fuels. However, it remains uncertain if this topic will be incorporated into the COP28 agenda in Dubai later this year.

The decision regarding the agenda lies with the negotiating chair, Sultan al-Jaber, head of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company. Appointing al-Jaber, who also oversees a substantial renewable energy company, as the head of the climate conference sparked opposition from European and American lawmakers as well as environmental activists. UAE officials have expressed a desire for transformative outcomes in climate talks.

During previous climate negotiations, an Indian proposal, supported by the United States and many European nations, to phase out all fossil fuels was not placed on the agenda. The discussion topics are determined by the COP president, who, in the preceding year, was the foreign minister of Egypt, a significant natural gas exporter.

Climate experts assert that delaying decisions by influential nations to discontinue fossil fuel consumption will hinder global efforts to address climate change’s adverse effects. This delay will disproportionately affect vulnerable developing nations like Bangladesh.

(Climate Journalist)